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Minister she should be good enough to be a candidate as well. Lots of noise around equality and that has resulted in a higher percentage of women selected. Overall for all candidates, we know that women constitute just under 30%, so 29%, and that is up 3% from 2015. In 2015 26% of candidates were women and in.
BBC Parliament
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We've seen quite a lot in the press and the election so far around the selection of women, and the great strides that have taken place not just in 2017 but since 1997. One argument we've made is the.
BBC Parliament
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I'm going to talk about two different topics today. The first is around the selection of women in the 2017 campaign, and that is a bit about what voters 's emotional responses are towards the campaign and the party leaders
BBC Parliament
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amongst remainers and May is more well liked amongst leave voters than Corbyn is. These things are interacting in a way that is advantage in the Conservatives and the issues of leadership and Brexit are very much entangled in the election. Thank you. Can I handover to Jennifer
BBC Parliament
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note, I would caution against separating out Brexit and leadership entirely. Here I've broken down how people feel about May and Corbyn by their vote in 2015 and their vote in the EU referendums. You can see that for the Conservatives, May is definitely more popular but she's more popular amongst leavers than remainders. The really interesting one is labour. Corbyn is more popular.
BBC Parliament
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the average voter in Britain. But even there: only four in ten of those people think he would be the best Prime Minister compared to 85% of the people best Prime Minister compared to 85% of the people who think that way about May. So I think that is why the election is going the way it is. Some people think Corbyn looks like a nice guy, might have nice valleys, they might agree with his policies, but they don't think he has what it takes to be Prime Minister. On a final.
BBC Parliament
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think about how the returns on liking a leader translate into thinking that they will be the best Prime Minister. This graph plots responses from these questions. So along the bottom is how people felt about each leader, so how you felt about Corbyn and how you felt about May and then going up is the proportion of those people in each of the categories for each leader who thought that that person would be the best Prime Minister. You can see that even when people don't like May they think You can see that even when people.
BBC Parliament
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If it's not Brexit, what is it? The obvious answer is it's about leadership and competence. I showed you the like figures before I showed you that Jeremy Corbyn was less well liked than you that Jeremy Corbyn was less well liked than Theresa May. Probably more important is the final set of bars which asked people how competent they thought Corbyn and May were. So although Corbyn is always lagging behind May on whether they are liked or always lagging behind May on whether they are liked or have integrity, it's this competence one that picks out the difference between them. Another way of visualising this is to.
BBC Parliament
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there is in all directions, so yes, you know, there are people moving from Labour to the Lib Dems on the remain side, people moving from Labour to the Tories on the leave side. Actually, there are people moving all over the place and there's a lot of people who're unsure about who they're going to vote for. So it looks like, although some people are being shifted by Brexit, mostly it's causing volatility and uncertainty in the election rather than reforming the lines of party competition in a clear way
BBC Parliament
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it's having on the way people cast their votes is very confused and noisy and it's not clear at all that we are going to get the same realignment that we have in Scotland after the Scottish independence referendum. So these graphs show the flow of the vote between 2015 and our last survey in 2016. So December 2016, so post-referendum. So the two things to note I think really are one how much movement.
BBC Parliament
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majority of people didn't say Brexit, only 43% of the sample said Brexit was the most important issue. It's high for a question of this type. Brexit seems to be at the forefront of people's mind but the effect.
BBC Parliament
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is a free text to an open-ended response. People are worried about Brexit and other issues like the NHS, immigration. They are slightly misleading though because they reward pluralities and punish people who disagree, much like our electoral who disagree, much like our electoral system, it's actually the.
BBC Parliament
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a more popular leader, we could see a quick reversal of fortunes in the polls. Now the big question is, is this the Brexit election. One question we asked people in the surveys is what is the most important issue facing the country. The easy way to visualise the responses is to do a word cloud which weights the size of words according to how frequently they are mentioned in people's responses. This.
BBC Parliament
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Ed Miliband. There's something I want to come back to later on, but the thing to remember about leadership, it's much more volatile than how people feel about the parties. The current election, the Tories are doing particularly well because Theresa May is so popular, but people's attitudes about leaders tend to change rapidly more so than parties, so if something went wrong with Brexit or if Labour managed to elect.
BBC Parliament
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the polls, things have changed dramatically since 2010 and 2015, but if you ask people the slightly different question, not who they are going to vote for but how they feel about the parties, actually the changed are much more muted. So this is the average level of liking of parties at each election and you can see that OK the Conservatives are slightly more popular than they were last time but they're not really much popular than they were in 2010 and OK Labour is slightly less popular than in 2015 but only.
BBC Parliament
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this are long and complicated and I don't have time to begin to to them, but basically -- time to go into them, but basically the breakdown of strong class hierarchies and Trade Unions and that sort of thing which pinned people into the two party system have eroded over a long.
BBC Parliament
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for the first time, only 13% of respondents changed parties between electionses. So just over one in ten. Whereas in 2015 which marks the high watermark of switching, 43% of the electorate voted for someone different than who they voted for five years previously in 2010. The reasons for.
BBC Parliament
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this is what the shared two party vote is over the years. It's declined massively over a long period of time since the 50s when the Conservatives and Labour got more than 90% of the vote to the most recent election where they only got 70%. If it twos back up to the sort of level expected by the polls, it marks a return not quite to the levels of two-party competition that we saw in the 50s and 60s, but at least maybe to the 80s and 90s. I want to say that even.
BBC Parliament
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2013 but it's been going for much longer, the British election study has run since 1964. The most recent wave was in December of last year and ideally we would have had slightly more recent data but the Prime Minister didn't give us quite enough notice unfortunately to get that out in time. So one of the interesting things about this election is whether it marks a return to.
BBC Parliament
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who asks the question is this the Brexit election, that is the big question on everyone's minds, then I want to touch on the role of leadership. I'm joined by the Internet panel which interviews 30,000 people per wave and we have been running the current one since.
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Chris to kick us off. I want to talk about three things. I want to put the current election into long-term context looking at how voters have changed the way they behave over a long period and also comparing attitudes towards the parties and leaders to the last couple of elections. Anyone.
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-- voting atty Tuesday. Professor Henderson who will talk us through the view on Scotland an Professor Tim Bale from Queen university London. Without further ado, I'll hand over to.
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BBC Parliament
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It's been an extraordinary year for.